Mortality risk model validation in a prospective cohort of patients from the sixth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in a hospital emergency department

Objective. To validate risk factors for mortality in patients treated for COVID-19 in a hospital emergency department during the sixth wave of the pandemic. Method. Prospective observational noninterventional study. We included patients over the age of 18 years with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 between December 1, 2021, and February 28, 2022. For each patient we calculated a risk score based on age 50 years or older (2 points) plus 1 point each for the presence of the following predictors: Barthel index less than 90 points, altered level of consciousness, ratio of arterial oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen less than 400, abnormal breath sounds, platelet concentration less than 100 x 109/L, C-reactive protein level of 5 mg/dL or more, and glomerular filtration rate less than 45 mL/min. The model was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results. Of the 1156 patients included, 790 (68%) had received at least 2 vaccine doses. The probability of 30-day survival was 96%. A risk score was calculated for 609 patients. Four hundred seventeen patients were at low risk of death, 180 were at intermediate risk, and 10 were at high risk. The probability of death within 30 days was 1%, 13%, and 50% for patients in the 3 risk groups, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of a risk score of 3 points or less were 88%, 72%, 19%, 99%, respectively.The AUC for the model was 0.87. Conclusion. The risk model identified low risk of mortality and allowed us to safely discharge patients treated for COVID-19 in our tertiary-care hospital emergency department. Copyright © 2023, Saned. All rights reserved.

Risk score for mortality due to COVID-19: a prospective temporal validation cohort study in the emergency department of a tertiary care hospital

Objective. To validate a previously described hospital emergency department risk model to predict mortality in patients with COVID-19. Methods. Prospective observational noninterventional study. Patients aged over 18 years diagnosed with COVID-19 were included between December 1, 2020, and February 28, 2021. We calculated a risk score for each patient based on age >= 50 years (2 points) plus 1 point each for the presence of the following predictors: Barthel index <90 points, altered level of consciousness, ratio of arterial oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen <400, abnormal breath sounds, platelet concentration <100 x 10(9)/L, C reactive protein level >= 5 mg/dL, and glomerular filtration rate <45 ml/min. The dependent variable was 30-day mortality. We assessed the score's performance with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results. The validation cohort included 1223 patients. After a median follow-up of 80 days, 143 patients had died;901 patients were classified as having low risk (score, <= 4 points), 270 as intermediate risk (5-6 points), and 52 as high risk (>= 7 points). Thirty-day mortality rates at each risk level were 2.8%, 22.5%, and 65.4%, respectively. The AUC for the score was 0.883;for risk categorization, the AUC was 0.818. Conclusion. The risk score described is useful for stratifying risk for mortality in patients with COVID-19 who come to a tertiary-care hospital emergency department.

Impact of COVID-19 infection on a physically active population: evaluation functional using the Cardiopulmonar Exercise Test (CPET)

Introduction: An increase it is being seen in patients who are referred for consultation due to dyspnea persistent after having overcome COVID19. The cause for this sequel is still not entirely clear, but our group has observed -in another study- that the consumption of oxygen (VO2) determined by cardiopulmonar exercise test (CPET) in these patients is low with respect to its predicted (p50). The objective of the present work was to demonstrate this hypothesis against to a control group with similar characteristics, who have not suffered from COVID19. Methods: We conducted a prospective study with military personnel who are part of a corps of army elite. All subjects have performed the same training daily during the last 2 years. They were divided into 3 groups: the first (G1) made up of those who had not suffered from the COVID19 disease;a second group (G2) that had suffered from it, but did not report impairment of functional class (CF);and a third group (G3) who maintained dyspnea persistent 3 months after suffering from the disease. Analytical with NT-proBNP, echocardiogram, basal spirometry, and CPET were performed. None required hospital admission. Results: 36 subjects were included, distributed as follows: G1 (n = 14), G2 (n = 15), G3 (n = 7). The 3 groups had a similar age and BMI. None of the subjects presented alterations in baseline spirometry, neither structural heart disease in the echo, and nor relevant analytical alterations, being NT-proBNP less than 125 pg/ml in all of them. In relation to the response variables cardiovascular, statistical differences (p = 0.03) were observed in peak oxygen consumption predicted among the three groups (% predicted peak VO2), being significantly lower in the G3 subjects. In addition, a trend was observed -in absolute values- of peak VO2 to be lower in G3 -not significant probably due to the small sample size-. They were not objectified significant differences in PulseO2, nor in OUES. No patient presented alterations in the ventilatory efficiency parameters, or in final BR. Conclusions: In our sample, patients who remained with persistent dyspnea after COVID-19, have a lower functional capacity compared to healthy subjects of the same characteristics, and with respect to subjects who after COVID19 do not present any symptoms. This subjective deterioration of the FC can be objectively quantified using CPET, thus reaffirming its value in this context. (Figure Presented).

Mortality in patients treated for COVID-19 in the emergency department of a tertiary care hospital during the first phase of the pandemic: Derivation of a risk model for emergency departments

Objective. To develop a risk model to predict 30-day mortality after emergency department treatment for COVID-19. Methods. Observational retrospective cohort study including 2511 patients with COVID-19 who came to our emergency department between March 1 and April 30, 2020. We analyzed variables with Kaplan Meier survival and Cox regression analyses. Results. All-cause mortality was 8% at 30 days. Independent variables associated with higher risk of mortality were age over 50 years, a Barthel index score less than 90, altered mental status, the ratio of arterial oxygen saturation to the fraction of inspired oxygen (SaO(2)/FIO2), abnormal lung sounds, platelet concentration less than 100000/mm(3), a C-reactive protein concentration of 5 mg/dL or higher, and a glomerular filtration rate less than 45 mL/min. Each independent predictor was assigned 1 point in the score except age, which was assigned 2 points. Risk was distributed in 3 levels: low risk (score of 4 points or less), intermediate risk (5 to 6 points), and high risk (7 points or above). Thirty-day risk of mortality was 1.7% for patients who scored in the low-risk category, 28.2% for patients with an intermediate risk score, and 67.3% for those with a high risk score. Conclusion. This mortality risk stratification tool for patients with COVID-19 could be useful for managing the course of disease and assigning health care resources in the emergency department.